The United States government struggled heavily with ways to undermine Fidel Castro’s power and popularity. Here, they try to estimate what would happen if they were successful in overthrowing his regime.
They do give the Cubans credit, predicting a strong pushback from Cuban guerilla forces were Americans to invade. There is also consideration of how long “cleanup” would take, as well as the number of casualties that would be sustained, on both sides. “Draft of a Study of General Pressures to Create a Contingency” wrote in a tone such as this, about putting into action operations similar to Northwoods, meant to coerce Cubans into converting to the American side.
Plan for U.S. Military Intervention in Cuba Codenamed Northwoods § (1962). https://catalog.archives.gov/id/305036.